May must set out Brexit plan 'without delay’
Before
the referendum there was always a belief that the result would be
debated in Parliament. What completely threw this government was that
no one expected the result and Cameron had no plan for the
possibility that that the people would vote leave. Theresa May is now
faced with a referendum result, (a referendum which of course is
"advisory") which she believes might be overturned by
Parliament. In order to appease some elements of her party and other
vested interests, she has chosen to use "Royal Prerogative"
to pass the necessary legislation to trigger Article 50 without
debate in Parliament. I believe that she is wrong and that the High
Court judges are absolutely correct. I also believe that it would be
a very brave or very foolish MP who would completely ignore the
decision taken by the British people. However, having said that it is
generally accepted now that if a referendum were held today, that
decision would be a very different one. May has now backed herself
into a very tight corner. Either she accepts the court decision
(there is of course an appeal scheduled for December 7th) and puts
the matter for debate in Parliament risking (in her view) a
government defeat, or government holds another referendum (most
unlikely) or she calls for a General Election (after meeting the
requirements of the "Fixed Term Parliament Act) where membership
of the European Union is the prime issue.
The problem then is whether
the government will campaign for "Brexit", to satisfy
sections of her party but knowing that the majority of the British
people would probably now favour "Remain". The other option
is to campaign on a "Remain" platform and thereby propel
the Conservative party into a very bloody and very destructive civil
war. It is a mess entirely of the Conservative government's own
making. Cameron and now May have created mayhem due to their lack of
planning and foresight and she has little room for wriggling. In the
mean time, we must hope and believe that the 11 Justices of the
Supreme Court will uphold the decision and affirm the pre-eminence of
Parliament and its members.
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