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The Science of Statistical manipulation

 This government and The Office for National Statistics are at it again.

 



The Office of National Statistics report shows 2.7 per cent rise in annual inflation during October



On the 16th October last, I wrote a piece on this Blog following the announcement that, according to the Office for National Statistics, inflation had fallen to a three year low. Essentially, I was a little sceptical of the figure and the way in which the euphoria of the press and media immediately leaped onto the band wagon of announcing that the worst of the economic crisis had passed and the “green shoots” of recovery were plain to see. The reasons for my scepticism were that the announcement of the new lower figure came just days after the energy companies had started their usual round of winter price hikes, and the fact that the lower rate announced in October but using the September figure, is the one against which State Pension increases and State Benefit levels are calculated for the following year.
Now, less than 30 days later, the Office for National Statistics, announce that the UK's inflation rate rose sharply in October. Now I think that I might be excused for believing that someone, somewhere is telling porkies. Add this to the latest pearls wisdom from the governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King, who has today downgraded the growth forecast for the UK economy for next year to around 1% blaming a worse than predicted impact from the financial crisis. You may well recall his bullish forecast made only a few short weeks ago which was immediately sized upon by the media and Tory government as proof positive that the economic programme of this ConDem Coalition was on track and all was well.
The latest round of statistics and of Bank of England forecasts leave me in little doubt that we have a long way to go. Sir Mervyn King has also said today that the country should be prepared for a TRIPLE dip recession. Successive governments have resorted to manufacturing statistics in order to suit a particular policy or programme at any given time, but it seems that over the past few years, the science of statistical manipulation has been advanced to a whole new level.
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